BY TONY OKAFOR
Over the past few weeks, Anambra’s political atmosphere has been poisoned by needless rancour over the forthcoming byelections in Anambra South Senatorial District and Onitsha North 1 State Constituency.
These contests are being held to fill the vacancies left by the late Senator Ifeanyi Ubah, who died about a year ago, and Justice Azuka, who was abducted on the eve of Christmas 2024 and later found dead in a bush.
But instead of sober reflection and issue-based campaigns, some political actors have declared that the August 16 byelections must be fought and won in a “do-or-die” manner.
Their reasoning? That whoever wins these contests will “take control” of Anambra and automatically cruise to victory in the November 8 governorship election.
This is a dangerous fallacy — a textbook case of faulty generalisation — and it must be called out before it inflames passions beyond control.
Byelections, by nature, are limited contests. They cover a single senatorial district or a single constituency.
Victory comes through a simple majority of valid votes in that small theatre of battle. A party may mobilise intensely in just a few local government areas and still emerge winner without having any real foothold elsewhere in the state.
The governorship election is a completely different ball game.
To be declared governor, a candidate must not only win the highest number of valid votes cast but also secure at least one-quarter of the votes in two-thirds of the local government areas in the state.
This is the constitutional spread requirement — a safeguard to ensure that the winner has broad acceptance across Anambra, not just in one corner of it.
Nigeria’s electoral history is replete with examples where parties won byelections but lost the main governorship or presidential polls.
Momentum from a byelection is often overstated — it may energise a base, but it is far from a guarantee of statewide victory.
The off-season governorship race in Anambra will be influenced by statewide coalition-building, party structures that can reach voters in the most remote communities, the personalities and credibility of the candidates, money politics, propaganda machinery, last-minute alliances, and, unfortunately, the usual Nigerian menu of political shenanigans and gerrymandering.
Therefore, politicians should stop treating the August 16 byelections as a proxy war for November 8. It is not.
You do not “own” Anambra by winning a district or constituency seat. What you may gain is bragging rights and a morale boost — nothing more.
The electorate should be vigilant. They should not allow themselves to be drawn into needless fights that turn neighbour against neighbour.
Two seats are at stake on August 16; the soul of the state will be contested in November. The two should not be confused.
Politics should be a contest of ideas, not a declaration of war or the coronation of self-styled “generalisissimos.”
Let there be peace.
